Latvian Political Monitor

@Dairis_Mr_21 @Broks @AndrisKulbergs Well, I cannot agree, Dairi. That is not so. Quick examples: - ICT procurements were halted so the state would not be defrauded. - airBaltic finally made a decision. - reduced the excise tax; - 52 million for teachers; - He slurped up Braže's soap, getting million cases from FRA. I am only naming the most visible ones publicly.

The government has rapidly shrunk the list of unfinished work - Kulbergs highlights the best ministers

KULBERGS AND STAMBULA It is strange that in yesterday's DELFI TV debate of prime minister candidates, representatives of two parties that call themselves nationally conservative answered “NO!” to the question “SHOULD LATVIA WITHDRAW FROM THE ISTANBUL CONVENTION?”. So “National Alliance” and “United List” are not value parties that follow ideological conviction, but “social barometers” that swing depending on the direction of the wind. Whatever is convenient is said. How can one vote for people if their decision-making filter is political expediency? In such a mindset, it is impossible to predict a party's course, because there is none. In contrast, evaluating ideological parties is understandable. Namely, they have values and principles from which the predictability of positions follows in all proposals considered during a Saeima term. In the case of “social barometers”, on the other hand, a voter can be sure only as far as he or she has questioned his or her favourite on specific issues, because answers can also be contradictory. They are called unprincipled people. You cannot call yourself a vegetarian and eat meat at the same time. Or claim that you are a vegetarian between meat-eating occasions. Currently only two ideological choices are available. “Progressives”, if you are for immigration, fragmentation of society through cultivation of pseudo-identities, state-regulated economy, same-sex marriage, high taxes, leaving inheritance to the state, supporting Gaza terrorists. And WE CHANGE THE RULES, if you are for the natural family, strengthening national identity, small state administration but individual responsibility for one's own life, low taxes, small expenditures and a complete halt to immigration. As seen in the picture, Alvis Hermanis is holding a green leaf in his hands. I too would vote for withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention for the following reasons: 1. The requirements mentioned in the Convention concerning prevention of violence against women, protection of children's rights, provision of psychological support and material compensation to victims of violence are already embedded in the Criminal Law. The remaining wording of the Convention is an ideological transformation of society in a way incompatible with the survival of Latvians. 2. The Convention provides for intrusion into the content of education, providing children from an early age with sexually educational information that does not correspond to the Latvian way of life and the majority society's understanding of what a natural family is, and genders – man and woman. Article 3, point c provides for the introduction of the concept of “social gender”, understood as “socially constructed” roles considered appropriate for men or women. This says that gender is a social construct and an individual's free choice – to be a man or a woman, because that is “right”! This is a plan to reprogram society in order to create a future genderless society in which there are neither borders nor national identity. 3. The Convention already stipulates that the specific articles concerning changing the content of education, redefining the understanding of genders, changing culture, religion and traditions cannot be applied with reservations. This is also a question of constitutional sovereignty. If Latvia's Constitution states that the state protects marriage, meaning a union between a man and a woman, then a convention that paves the way for same-sex marriage will violate this definition. 4. It is contrary to the policy of large families and harmful in a situation where the nation is unable to reproduce itself and does not have children. In the event of ratification of the Convention, such parents who would teach children heteronormative values, now made out to be “evil”, that a man is a man and a woman is a woman, could be punished, as provided for in Article 45, paragraph 2 of the Convention, which would allow children to be removed from families in which it is impossible to guarantee their interests arising from the rest of the document's content. 5. Article 12, paragraph 5 and Article 38 seem strange, which stipulate that crimes against women committed “in defence of so-called honour” are prohibited, as well as genital mutilation, for example, complete or partial excision of the clitoris. It is also stated there that “Parties shall ensure that culture, customs, religion, traditions” are not considered a justification for violence. What cultures are being referred to? Such practices are not followed in Western culture, but in some African and Muslim countries. This reveals another hidden facet of the Convention, namely changing immigration policy. For example, a citizen of an African country is refused the fulfilment of his wish to legally become a woman so that the entry in the passport matches self-identification. Such people will have the right to seek asylum in EU member states that have ratified the Istanbul Convention, under Article 60 of the document “Gender-based asylum applications”, providing refugee status in such cases when a potential “victim” suffers from violence. I advise Mr Kulbergs to read the entire convention, not just its title. Edvarts Krusts, @partijaMMN ZEMGALE REGION No. 1

@liana_langa @AndrisKulbergs That is why, friend, because the committee now still has to do the work that IZM did not finish…

Once again AS is slowing down or putting on pause the restriction of immigration, this time it affects universities and fake third-country students. #LatvijaLatviešiem #AustrisStankevics #ElīnaBalode https://t.co/C8wDIUQlml

Day No. 85 in the prime minister's chair (Monday) – 💰 Parties — who promises more? 📊 Budget scenarios; 🇳🇵 News from Nepal The day was spent working with @MarisKucinskis, @Finmin and @Valstskase officials and managers, analysing state finances, economic forecasts, saving opportunities and various scenarios. 📊 Figures, data and facts: ➖ The financial policy and spending management of previous governments have long been irresponsible — the budget deficit has been kept at the maximum possible limit, regularly borrowing money also for everyday spending. Such an approach had become the norm, and the whole Latvian society and sectors have become accustomed to this model. ➖ In 2028, the largest budget deficit is forecast — €2.7 billion, or 5.4%! ➖ Just servicing the state debt, i.e. interest payments, will already cost €681 million next year. This money will have to be found somewhere — so somewhere less will have to be spent. Debt servicing costs have risen from €155 million in 2021 to €681 million in 2027, because the price of money has become significantly higher. ➖ By 2030, the budget plans adopted by New Unity's finance ministers and prime minister provide for a deficit of around €2 billion every year. That is not safe and sustainable management of state finances. ➖ The Siliņa government (JV) left behind decisions adopted in the Cabinet of Ministers or laws worth €421 million in 2027, and this amount rises to €663 million in 2030 — WITHOUT ANY FINANCIAL COVERAGE. Of which: 🏥 €264 million — for health care 👩‍🏫 €56 million — for teachers' salaries ➖ Latvia's current and forecast economic growth is stagnatingly low — around +2% a year, but its contribution to the budget is largely eaten up by forecast annual inflation of +3.5%. ➖ The largest increase in budget expenditure is for defence and security — +32%, amounting to around €2 billion a year. ➖ The state has long been programmed to live at the maximum permissible budget deficit, without reviewing existing expenditure and on top of that adding another +1.5% of borrowing for security, which the 🇪🇺EU allows to be additionally included in the deficit for three years. Conclusion? 👉We do not review existing budget expenditure. 👉We continue to live on debt. 👉And we borrow even more, because we are allowed to do so. That is not right. ➖ Also noteworthy is the manoeuvre of E. Siliņa's (JV) government, borrowing 1% from the 2nd pension level. That too will have to be paid back into the budget — an impact of around €280 million in 2029. ➖ Also in 2029, the term expires for the additional tax imposed on banks, i.e. the windfall tax. As a result, the state budget will also lose these additional revenues. ➖ One of the biggest problems in budget planning is politically adopted decisions to "tie" spending in specific sectors to a certain percentage — for example, 6% of GDP for health care — or to automatically index wages. If a budget expenditure is tied to a specific %, the whole expenditure part automatically increases as GDP or another variable grows — without any new government or Saeima decision. ✅ There is also good news. The Ministry of Finance and @kucinskis have been working since July, reviewing the ministries' base expenditure, and have already found €214 million in savings in the 2027 budget base. That is a step in the right direction, but there is still a lot of work to do. We must continue to optimise expenditure so that there is money to cover already planned and adopted commitments for which no revenues have been identified. 📕 One thing is clear to me — the next government will have to adopt an iron-fisted "2027–2030 FISCAL STABILITY AND REFORM PLAN", more precisely — a special law, similar to during Covid. The way out of this financial situation is not a simple spending-cutting plan. That will not be enough this time. 📈 The economy and budget revenues must be grown rapidly, with the main emphasis on the opportunities of export-capable companies. I believe this is possible, because such slow economic growth can and should be increased by at least +1.5 percentage points a year. That would give the budget an additional around €300 million in revenue. 💶 But we need to save already today — already for 2027. That is why the ministers agreed: ⛔ To stop the typical DECEMBER waste — meaninglessly spending the balances of ministries and institutions at the end of the year. ⛔ From 1 October, to suspend the conclusion of any new contracts and commitments. A similar moratorium as in the ICT area — if something is truly necessary, the need and usefulness must be proven. 🧊 To freeze salaries at the 2025 level. ⛔ To stop paying DECEMBER bonuses and extra payments — an exception may be allowed only for special achievements and with a manager's justification. ⛔ To stop unnecessary events, seminars, conferences, consultations and studies, as well as office and equipment renewal, IT and other investments that are not critically necessary. 🔍 Ministers must take political responsibility and, together with state secretaries and heads of institutions, review and justify any budget expenditure above €50,000. 🗳️ PARTIES — WHO PROMISES MORE? Given this stark budget reality and the legacy left in state finances, where even borrowing up to the maximum 🇪🇺EU-permitted budget deficit limit is not enough, the pre-election promises of political parties stand out in particular. They can no longer be measured in hundreds of millions — they are already measured in billions of euros, moreover without financial coverage and without a real economic growth offer. I have analysed the programmes of several political parties and summarised each party's promises in monetary terms for the period from 2027 to 2030. 🏆 The political "Promisers" record-holders for the next four years: 🥇 No.1 — Suverēnā Vara / Jaunlatvieši (Stepaņenko wants to give benefits, cut VAT, raise wages): +€3.61 billion 🥈 No.2 — @LatvijaPirmaja (@SlesersAinars – we lower VAT on everything): +€2.87 billion 🥉 No.3 — @ZZS_ (@ViktorsValainis — promising to abolish VAT): +€2.47 billion 4️⃣ @Progresivie (@suvajevs — because money grows on trees): +€2.1 billion 5️⃣ @Jauna_Vienotiba (@aseradens — we continue to borrow endlessly): +€1.56 billion 6️⃣ @tblv Nacionālā Apvienība — (wants to fund language, education, culture and fight illegal migration, without thinking about the ECONOMY): +€1.55 billion 7️⃣ @Apvienotais_ — main emphasis on education, which will pay off in the future, with a justification of where we will get the funding: +€763 million 🇳🇵 NEPAL In the Nepalese context — all those belonging to Latvia are still in the status of missing persons. According to the Civil Law, one must wait until April 2027 to change this status and relatives can start arranging the necessary documents. Until then — hope dies last. The Latvian government is ready to help in every possible way, if such a need arises.

🎯 Absolutely agree! Often bureaucracy is used as a cover where it can safely be avoided. https://t.co/aMb7g1UcMt

Soft power seeping back in through the side door can cost very dearly.

@transhumaanists @VL_TBLNNK @IIndriksone @janisdombrava 🎯⤵️ https://t.co/JPpiNMQ0w4

‼️ Again, migrant-based business is being lobbied behind the scenes, and again the adoption of anti-immigration decisions is being stalled both in the Cabinet of Ministers and in the Saeima! 🤯 This is already symptomatic! https://t.co/JPpiNMQylC

@didzisdejus @janisdombrava There you have it! The United List is delaying decision-making in the Saeima. For a long time already. And when asked to review it in a committee meeting so it could be supported at least in the first reading, Česlavs Batņa reportedly replied that no one will force him to do it.

@didzisdejus @janisdombrava The obstacle is in the Saeima committees chaired by members of the United List. Amendments to the Immigration Law and the University Law, which would place strict restrictions on fake students and impose liability and penalties on universities that invite third-country students for violations, are being kept in drawers.

Kulbergs on the upcoming budget deficit: in 2027 Latvia will have to "find" EUR 421 million somewhere

Promises are expensive, money is not enough – Kulbergs reveals how big a hole awaits next year's budget

VIDEO. Why a Latvian soldier and a Latvian border guard were not allowed to swim in the same pool