Latvian Political Monitor

There is no drama here. I have a good relationship with Česlavs, we have discussed education a lot. Mostly on the same wavelength. At the time he was also an excellent principal at the school where the children go, all due respect. What I saw in the budget expenditure review group is a separate topic. The control of how funding is used is below any criticism. And when all ministries buckled down and brought savings, when defense spending needed to be raised to 5%, the Ministry of Education and Science put its feet up on the table and got a free pass. That is not good, not good at all.

Yes. The Ministry of Education is the most horrifying in terms of money inefficiency. I have concrete proposals. The goal is education quality, in my opinion. Not concrete, school walls and heating. And 3-child classes with maybe not the best teacher team (those who live nearby). Quality education is the goal. I got one and don't want to deny it to others. Our children are a priority, education is the foundation of national welfare. Personally, I could live in the forest too, but since there are three children in the family, I choose to live where good schools are nearby. That is the parents' choice, also mine, until they grow up.

Yes, the menu has several sections. One of them is about tax policy. The IMF, for example, doesn't believe that you can cut expenses. They offer only that. In the Ministry of Finance, we put several sections in the menu - expenditure reduction, reforms (merging institutions), and also a tax section. Then all of that can be combined in different ways like Lego bricks. However, a deficit-free budget cannot be achieved without taxes. That is because we spend on defense in something like a half-war mode. And in other countries it is exactly the same, the same problem with the budget. My idea is to aim for a 'normalized deficit-free budget'. If you don't take into account the increase in defense spending from 2% to 5%, and accept those 3% as above normal and don't compensate for them, then you can achieve a normalized deficit-free budget. As for taxes, they are relatively low compared to GDP. And that is also why, for example, the health sector cannot be funded as much as we want (currently below the OECD average relative to GDP). So everything is about desires. If you want to fund education, health, etc. as much as in OECD countries, then the tax burden must be correspondingly higher. So what do we want? We have to choose. In the coming years, the tax burden, by the way, with unchanged policy, will continue to decline relative to GDP, which also needs to be taken into account.

🇱🇻 In these photos my son grows. And in a sense, so does our Latvia. Valters and I have a tradition. At every election, one photo at the ballot box. Always together. In the first photos he is very small - still in my arms. Later he is already standing next to me. Today he is already 14. And this time, looking at our old photos, one thought struck me: these are the last Saeima elections in which Valters is still standing next to me. In the next ones he will make his choice himself. With his own conviction and his own hand. Perhaps that is how time is best measured. Not in years, but in how the child we once carried in our arms grows into a person who will have to take responsibility for our Latvian state. Today I also made my choice - for people and a team that I trust and am convinced can solve the accumulated problems in security, economy, finance, education, health and other matters - for list No. 7, the United List @Apvienotais_ and the prime minister - Andris Kulbergs! @AndrisKulbergs 🌼 But regardless of what your choice is, go and make it. Because election day is not only about politicians. It is about all of us Latvian patriots, our families and Latvia, which one day we will fully hand over to our children's hands. Today our hands are still together at the ballot box. Next time - everyone will already have their own voice. 🇱🇻

@ubinators @Elina_Treija @ProBono_Latvia @CVK_zinas @JaunsLV Concordia was the best university in the Baltics, with an additional US college diploma, because it was accredited in the US. I graduated with two diplomas. The comment you are making applies to a later decline period after owner Susi misappropriated the university's funds.

@AlksneR @gatisliepin Then professional education in construction is no longer useful for anything after graduating from a State Gymnasium?

@Dairis_Mr_21 @Broks @AndrisKulbergs Well, I cannot agree, Dairi. That is not so. Quick examples: - ICT procurements were halted so the state would not be defrauded. - airBaltic finally made a decision. - reduced the excise tax; - 52 million for teachers; - He slurped up Braže's soap, getting million cases from FRA. I am only naming the most visible ones publicly.

@dzeina Excellent👌😅😅

@liana_langa @AndrisKulbergs That is why, friend, because the committee now still has to do the work that IZM did not finish…

Day No. 85 in the prime minister's chair (Monday) – 💰 Parties — who promises more? 📊 Budget scenarios; 🇳🇵 News from Nepal The day was spent working with @MarisKucinskis, @Finmin and @Valstskase officials and managers, analysing state finances, economic forecasts, saving opportunities and various scenarios. 📊 Figures, data and facts: ➖ The financial policy and spending management of previous governments have long been irresponsible — the budget deficit has been kept at the maximum possible limit, regularly borrowing money also for everyday spending. Such an approach had become the norm, and the whole Latvian society and sectors have become accustomed to this model. ➖ In 2028, the largest budget deficit is forecast — €2.7 billion, or 5.4%! ➖ Just servicing the state debt, i.e. interest payments, will already cost €681 million next year. This money will have to be found somewhere — so somewhere less will have to be spent. Debt servicing costs have risen from €155 million in 2021 to €681 million in 2027, because the price of money has become significantly higher. ➖ By 2030, the budget plans adopted by New Unity's finance ministers and prime minister provide for a deficit of around €2 billion every year. That is not safe and sustainable management of state finances. ➖ The Siliņa government (JV) left behind decisions adopted in the Cabinet of Ministers or laws worth €421 million in 2027, and this amount rises to €663 million in 2030 — WITHOUT ANY FINANCIAL COVERAGE. Of which: 🏥 €264 million — for health care 👩‍🏫 €56 million — for teachers' salaries ➖ Latvia's current and forecast economic growth is stagnatingly low — around +2% a year, but its contribution to the budget is largely eaten up by forecast annual inflation of +3.5%. ➖ The largest increase in budget expenditure is for defence and security — +32%, amounting to around €2 billion a year. ➖ The state has long been programmed to live at the maximum permissible budget deficit, without reviewing existing expenditure and on top of that adding another +1.5% of borrowing for security, which the 🇪🇺EU allows to be additionally included in the deficit for three years. Conclusion? 👉We do not review existing budget expenditure. 👉We continue to live on debt. 👉And we borrow even more, because we are allowed to do so. That is not right. ➖ Also noteworthy is the manoeuvre of E. Siliņa's (JV) government, borrowing 1% from the 2nd pension level. That too will have to be paid back into the budget — an impact of around €280 million in 2029. ➖ Also in 2029, the term expires for the additional tax imposed on banks, i.e. the windfall tax. As a result, the state budget will also lose these additional revenues. ➖ One of the biggest problems in budget planning is politically adopted decisions to "tie" spending in specific sectors to a certain percentage — for example, 6% of GDP for health care — or to automatically index wages. If a budget expenditure is tied to a specific %, the whole expenditure part automatically increases as GDP or another variable grows — without any new government or Saeima decision. ✅ There is also good news. The Ministry of Finance and @kucinskis have been working since July, reviewing the ministries' base expenditure, and have already found €214 million in savings in the 2027 budget base. That is a step in the right direction, but there is still a lot of work to do. We must continue to optimise expenditure so that there is money to cover already planned and adopted commitments for which no revenues have been identified. 📕 One thing is clear to me — the next government will have to adopt an iron-fisted "2027–2030 FISCAL STABILITY AND REFORM PLAN", more precisely — a special law, similar to during Covid. The way out of this financial situation is not a simple spending-cutting plan. That will not be enough this time. 📈 The economy and budget revenues must be grown rapidly, with the main emphasis on the opportunities of export-capable companies. I believe this is possible, because such slow economic growth can and should be increased by at least +1.5 percentage points a year. That would give the budget an additional around €300 million in revenue. 💶 But we need to save already today — already for 2027. That is why the ministers agreed: ⛔ To stop the typical DECEMBER waste — meaninglessly spending the balances of ministries and institutions at the end of the year. ⛔ From 1 October, to suspend the conclusion of any new contracts and commitments. A similar moratorium as in the ICT area — if something is truly necessary, the need and usefulness must be proven. 🧊 To freeze salaries at the 2025 level. ⛔ To stop paying DECEMBER bonuses and extra payments — an exception may be allowed only for special achievements and with a manager's justification. ⛔ To stop unnecessary events, seminars, conferences, consultations and studies, as well as office and equipment renewal, IT and other investments that are not critically necessary. 🔍 Ministers must take political responsibility and, together with state secretaries and heads of institutions, review and justify any budget expenditure above €50,000. 🗳️ PARTIES — WHO PROMISES MORE? Given this stark budget reality and the legacy left in state finances, where even borrowing up to the maximum 🇪🇺EU-permitted budget deficit limit is not enough, the pre-election promises of political parties stand out in particular. They can no longer be measured in hundreds of millions — they are already measured in billions of euros, moreover without financial coverage and without a real economic growth offer. I have analysed the programmes of several political parties and summarised each party's promises in monetary terms for the period from 2027 to 2030. 🏆 The political "Promisers" record-holders for the next four years: 🥇 No.1 — Suverēnā Vara / Jaunlatvieši (Stepaņenko wants to give benefits, cut VAT, raise wages): +€3.61 billion 🥈 No.2 — @LatvijaPirmaja (@SlesersAinars – we lower VAT on everything): +€2.87 billion 🥉 No.3 — @ZZS_ (@ViktorsValainis — promising to abolish VAT): +€2.47 billion 4️⃣ @Progresivie (@suvajevs — because money grows on trees): +€2.1 billion 5️⃣ @Jauna_Vienotiba (@aseradens — we continue to borrow endlessly): +€1.56 billion 6️⃣ @tblv Nacionālā Apvienība — (wants to fund language, education, culture and fight illegal migration, without thinking about the ECONOMY): +€1.55 billion 7️⃣ @Apvienotais_ — main emphasis on education, which will pay off in the future, with a justification of where we will get the funding: +€763 million 🇳🇵 NEPAL In the Nepalese context — all those belonging to Latvia are still in the status of missing persons. According to the Civil Law, one must wait until April 2027 to change this status and relatives can start arranging the necessary documents. Until then — hope dies last. The Latvian government is ready to help in every possible way, if such a need arises.

@Astridamains @aseradens That's right. In my opinion, the Ministry of Education and Science (IzM) is one of the most ineffective ministries out of the 14.

Municipalities are an entire parallel system (to the central government), which in total costs more than the average for OECD countries. A politically very strong group, which is why they also manage to take more from the budget. But. The basic problem behind the costliness is teachers’ salaries; the state provides their base. If education policy is a priority at 5 and the Ministry of Education and Science recently tried to introduce classes of three children, then in the end you come to kaiser-court politics. Several “governesses” for every child. And that is simply very expensive. That is why the number of children is falling, but spending is rising.

#krīviski https://t.co/t6liPTqYfN

Day No. 78 (THURSDAY 17 Sept) — Meeting with US envoy John Coale and the Swedish ARCHER howitzer story; LIZDA 🤝 Meeting at the Cabinet of Ministers with the US D. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) envoy on Belarusian affairs, John Coale (@johnpcoale). So active, sharp-minded and with a good sense of humour – I was surprised to learn that he is already 80 years old. ➖ He had just returned from a meeting with Lukashenko, where, thanks to his efforts, a large number of political prisoners were released ➖ It was a very substantive conversation in which we discussed the situation in Belarus, the US role, the war in Ukraine and the issue of Russia and Ukraine's grain blockade ➖ I particularly highlighted Russia's organised hybrid attack with the flow of illegal migrants to the LV border through Belarus, in which special services participate and which they organise – I presented the latest figures and measures ➖ I stressed that US–Latvian economic relations cooperation must be changed and raised to a new level from 15th place into the TOP 5️⃣ – I mentioned the military industry, the energy sector and US cargo flows from Central Asia ➖ He promised to discuss the Latvian question with D. Trump 🛡️ The defence deal question on the ARCHER system from Sweden 🤷‍♂️ It is incomprehensible what motives drove the previous defence minister not to make a decision for 2 years on the purchase of the defence system and howitzers. To me it is a mystery, because if the decision had been made, we would already have had systems delivered that would fill a significant pillar of Latvia's critical defence plan. ➖ Because of the delayed and unadopted procurement decision, it is now necessary to assess which supplier is more suitable so that we can fill this position as quickly as possible. With the Czech 'Morana' system, this can be done at least 1.5 years faster ➖ Capabilities and total costs are also not unimportant. The Czech system works with all NATO and Latvia-held 155 mm ammunition, and there is a very large financial difference – we simply do not have the resources in the Ministry of Defence budget to buy the expensive Swedish systems. Moreover, the Czech manufacturer will localise 20% of production in Latvia – that means jobs, taxes and production capacity! ➖ The NBS already a year ago and again now confirmed point by point that it is not changing its assessment – for Latvia's needs the Czech system is more suitable because it covers the needs fastest 👥 Meeting with LIZDA (@lizda_lv) ➖ We talked about education reform and the fact that changes need to be less frequent and smaller. Schools and teachers are very tired of constant changes ➖ We discussed budget issues – I listened to LIZDA's and teachers' demands, while LIZDA's head Inga Vanaga also listened to my and the Cabinet's questions about state finances and the budget 📡 Meeting with OTAN ➖ OTAN military communication system that can combine all communication networks into one – a solution for civil protection services and municipalities to be in a single communication system. It is a very worth-considering option to deploy it across all Latvia, not only for military needs in the border area. I will speak with Raivis Melnis about funding 💪🇱🇻 📰 I gave interviews to Bloomberg magazine and , LIZDA

What are you going to purge? Well, then say it! Lay off the army, police, doctors, or teachers? They are all in the public sector. At all levels, you can barely scrape together 100 million from civil servants. Not billions by any means. Then, whether you like it or not, you will have to answer to those who will be elected. If you are so eager for power, realize that it will be you who will have to do something like that, and then your own brothers and sisters will cut off your head. That is exactly what happened to the French with that revolution. After all, you too are revolutionaries?

⚖️ The lawyer qualification exam must be demanding, fair, and just toward every student. The government has supported amendments prepared by the Ministry of Justice to the procedure for the unified state professional qualification exam for lawyers. They provide: 🔹 a clearer procedure for assessing possible academic integrity violations; 🔹 the right of a student to finish the exam even if suspicions of a violation have arisen during it; 🔹 the possibility to appeal the commission's decision to an appeals commission; 🔹 precise rules on the use of unauthorised aids and devices; 🔹 more flexible action in the event of technical disruptions, security threats, or other unforeseen circumstances. ℹ️ The amendments will enter into force in the general procedure. The new procedure for determining higher education institution representation will apply starting with the winter 2027 qualification exam. More: https://t.co/mSRk9ECNbe