Latvian Political Monitor

From@AndrisKulbergs

Day No. 71 (Friday) in the prime minister’s seat ✈️—airBaltic: the new, expensive short-term private loan Let everyone be clear. The choice is between saving airBaltic or continuing to be a bad owner without money. As prime minister, I do not want the state to continue being a bad owner. We trust the professionals, the management board, the supervisory board and Kozlovskis. The plan was brought to the government, we approved it, anchored it in law, which provides for it. I have been saying for a month that decisions are in the hands of bondholders. In this loan, the state does not invest money in @airBaltic. The loan is private short-term financing (secured bondholders and a private fund without collateral cover) that gives Transport Minister Kozlovskis (JV), airBaltic management and the supervisory board 180 days to finally put the company in order and attract a strategic investor. 💶 The new loan is expensive because it reflects airBaltic’s real financial situation. It is in fact the last chance to save the company. In 2024, during Siliņa's government, airBaltic borrowed 380 million euros in very expensive bonds. Even then, this money was supposed to serve to put the company in order. But over two years the money was burned—costs were not cut, the number of aircraft/routes was not reviewed, and finances and debts were not put in order. The result is logical: the next money is even more expensive because lenders see the company’s current risk. 📌 Note — the new private loan’s interest rate is lower than the 30 million euro state loan supported by Siliņa's government and PRO in APRIL (without a plan, without a rescue strategy). Why lower? Because this government reduces the government’s role. It effectively removes the risk that the state as owner could behave inadequately. Immediately the market is ready to provide funds for restructuring. My position on airBaltic has been clear for a long time: 1️⃣ airBaltic’s future is now largely in the hands of bondholders, not shareholders. 2️⃣ The state as owner and airBaltic management could have put the company in order while it still had money. Weak cooperation between company management and political leadership also led to the fact that the then IPO plan was not realized. 3️⃣ This created a situation where the company has a weak financial position, but the owner—the state—has no free money with which to save the company. 4️⃣ If the state as owner has neither the resources nor sufficient experience and knowledge to pull the company out of a severe financial situation, then the state alone cannot save the company. (ZZS @ViktorsValainis understands very well and knows that Lufthansa refused and does not want to finance AB) 5️⃣ That is why the airBaltic management board and supervisory board, together with Seabury, have developed a plan to stabilize the company’s financial situation with the help of private financial investors—in principle without state money. 6️⃣ For this plan to be implemented, the state must let professionals work and must not create additional obstacles. This is the plan submitted to the government by Transport Minister Kozlovskis, which the government has accepted and for whose implementation the necessary legal framework has also been adopted. 7️⃣ 💼 Financial investors evidently believe that within six months the company’s finances can be put in order sufficiently for airBaltic to continue its development and attract a strategic investor. 8️⃣ Now Transport Minister Kozlovskis and the airBaltic supervisory board, which represents state interests, must do everything possible in these 180 days to attract a strategic investor for whom Riga is important as the main base. 🇱🇻 Latvia needs an investor who sees airBaltic’s long-term development specifically in Latvia, with its main base and jobs. Ideally, it would be a partner alongside whom the Latvian state could also retain or acquire a stake in the company in the future. 9️⃣ This is now the direct responsibility of the Ministry of Transport, Minister Kozlovskis and the airBaltic supervisory board. I will ask for regular reports on the potential investors approached and progress of negotiations. ⚠️ I am not satisfied with the current pace of approaching investors. We must get it together. These 180 days must not be wasted.

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From@AndrisKulbergs

Day No. 71 (Friday) in the prime minister’s seat ✈️—airBaltic: the new, expensive short-term private loan Let everyone be clear. The choice is between saving airBaltic or continuing to be a bad owner without money. As prime minister, I do not want the state to continue being a bad owner. We trust the professionals, the management board, the supervisory board and Kozlovskis. The plan was brought to the government, we approved it, anchored it in law, which provides for it. I have been saying for a month that decisions are in the hands of bondholders. In this loan, the state does not invest money in @airBaltic. The loan is private short-term financing (secured bondholders and a private fund without collateral cover) that gives Transport Minister Kozlovskis (JV), airBaltic management and the supervisory board 180 days to finally put the company in order and attract a strategic investor. 💶 The new loan is expensive because it reflects airBaltic’s real financial situation. It is in fact the last chance to save the company. In 2024, during Siliņa's government, airBaltic borrowed 380 million euros in very expensive bonds. Even then, this money was supposed to serve to put the company in order. But over two years the money was burned—costs were not cut, the number of aircraft/routes was not reviewed, and finances and debts were not put in order. The result is logical: the next money is even more expensive because lenders see the company’s current risk. 📌 Note — the new private loan’s interest rate is lower than the 30 million euro state loan supported by Siliņa's government and PRO in APRIL (without a plan, without a rescue strategy). Why lower? Because this government reduces the government’s role. It effectively removes the risk that the state as owner could behave inadequately. Immediately the market is ready to provide funds for restructuring. My position on airBaltic has been clear for a long time: 1️⃣ airBaltic’s future is now largely in the hands of bondholders, not shareholders. 2️⃣ The state as owner and airBaltic management could have put the company in order while it still had money. Weak cooperation between company management and political leadership also led to the fact that the then IPO plan was not realized. 3️⃣ This created a situation where the company has a weak financial position, but the owner—the state—has no free money with which to save the company. 4️⃣ If the state as owner has neither the resources nor sufficient experience and knowledge to pull the company out of a severe financial situation, then the state alone cannot save the company. (ZZS @ViktorsValainis understands very well and knows that Lufthansa refused and does not want to finance AB) 5️⃣ That is why the airBaltic management board and supervisory board, together with Seabury, have developed a plan to stabilize the company’s financial situation with the help of private financial investors—in principle without state money. 6️⃣ For this plan to be implemented, the state must let professionals work and must not create additional obstacles. This is the plan submitted to the government by Transport Minister Kozlovskis, which the government has accepted and for whose implementation the necessary legal framework has also been adopted. 7️⃣ 💼 Financial investors evidently believe that within six months the company’s finances can be put in order sufficiently for airBaltic to continue its development and attract a strategic investor. 8️⃣ Now Transport Minister Kozlovskis and the airBaltic supervisory board, which represents state interests, must do everything possible in these 180 days to attract a strategic investor for whom Riga is important as the main base. 🇱🇻 Latvia needs an investor who sees airBaltic’s long-term development specifically in Latvia, with its main base and jobs. Ideally, it would be a partner alongside whom the Latvian state could also retain or acquire a stake in the company in the future. 9️⃣ This is now the direct responsibility of the Ministry of Transport, Minister Kozlovskis and the airBaltic supervisory board. I will ask for regular reports on the potential investors approached and progress of negotiations. ⚠️ I am not satisfied with the current pace of approaching investors. We must get it together. These 180 days must not be wasted.

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From@SlesersAinars

I call on Prime Minister Kulbergs to address the Prosecutor General's Office with a request to initiate criminal proceedings against JV and Progressive politicians for squandering money on an especially large scale, in connection with Air Baltic!

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From@AndrisKulbergs

Yesterday, on September 5, a serious incident occurred during a walk of the preschool "Riekstiņš" pupils, in which six children were injured. A group of 19 children, accompanied by a teacher and a teacher's assistant, had gone on a previously agreed walk outside the educational institution's territory, following the approved walking route. During the walk, two unsupervised dogs approached the group of children from the end of Lašu Street. According to information provided by the institution, six children were injured in the incident, two of whom were hospitalized. One of the teachers accompanying the children was also injured. Four administrative violation proceedings have been initiated in connection with the incident. The Food and Veterinary Service (PVD) has been informed and will take action within its competence regarding the assessment of the dogs. The municipality is cooperating with the police, the Food and Veterinary Service, and other responsible services to clarify all circumstances and assess necessary further safety measures. After the police's procedural actions, the dogs were handed over to their owner. https://t.co/xHOtQmRb3g

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From@OMXBB_Explorer

People of the Baltics - meet your new airBaltic owners: Polus Capital and Klirmark Capital. Here’s what I think will happen. Rough balance sheet of today (guesstimate): Equity (250) Senior bonds 395 Oth borrowing 140 Leases 915 Other op liab 420 Cash 30

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From@aivars_ve

@Lato_Lapsa @AndrisKulbergs Comparing only 14.5% and 25% is misleading. The first loan financed airBaltic's growth strategy, while the second is short-term rescue financing to address the consequences of the failure of that strategy and its implementation. The economic essence of the two loans is fundamentally different.

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From@dblv

Kulbergs: airBaltic's 257 million euro financing shows private investors' trust in the strategic plan https://t.co/VXyu1eG4Bu

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From@janiscir

@guntarsv @lifesound22 @E_Stendzenieks I tried various ways, but with those poor 30m + bond conversion I just can't get the state to retain 25%+1 share. I get 10-15% (depending on how winter goes and how successfully they get rid of the planes). Do your models really show that the state will retain a significant stake? 🙂

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From@AndrisKulbergs

As of today, AirBaltic will have to start flights to Colombia and back in order to cover the 14.5% loan interest payments of ~€50 million per year. This payment will eat up all profits earned this year and next year. At the end of the year, the result will be negative profit, which is a very unfavorable circumstance for conducting the IPO process, which is planned by November this year. This whole saga with the refinancing of the €200 million bond would not have happened if Kariņš had not shut down flights for 61 days as the only airline in the EU (that cost -€200 million) and had used the special COVID circumstances when EU countries were allowed to support their airlines and money cost almost nothing. Now we all see the price of these unaccepted, botched decisions. Last week's €136 million state injection into bonds + we give €50 million of profits to 'junk bond' speculators, we risk €/$ exchange rate fluctuations (because planes are leased in $), we enter the IPO with a negative story and losses in the 2024 balance sheet. I say that unfortunately this is not the last time the state will have to prop up AB. I want to hear an explanation from @Briskens soon in the @Apvienotais_ faction about further plans, so that this time we don't have to save headlong without information and a Plan B. #airbaltic

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From@Lato_Lapsa

Kulbergs, Vītols, and Kučinskis' new, great airBaltic business plan: borrowing at 14.5% per year was bad, so now we'll borrow at 25% per year. And shut up, dimwits, you understand nothing!

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