Latvian Political Monitor

@guntarsv Then creditors file for bankruptcy in March, right?

But nothing has been lied about. The goal was for airBaltic to keep flying, and it could only fly by saving (coming to terms with) creditors, thereby de facto losing most of the state's control over the company. My bet is that the state will still be forced to inject something when the promised strategic investor arrives, and if we want some kind of connectivity with Riga… of course, if it comes. But that will be after the elections. 😀 however, time and liquidity have been bought. Yes, at a high price. And it is not the state that pays, but airBaltic itself, including to the state. They will clear the field, and bondholders, to whom the company is already in debt, will get better collateral... Bridge financing has been found, and more than planned. The state has an option to participate proportionally in this new issuance as well. I think the state will not participate. The most likely end game is that the debt holders will be saved, the company will fly, but Latvia's stake in the company will be negligible. But there will be an option to participate with cash, like buy back what was lost. Logically, the only question here will be whether the new owners will be interested in keeping the 'hub' in Riga or not.

In a few months, the usual complaints will start again about how strategically important airBaltic is and that there is no other way but to pump in another few million. https://t.co/ROtcr7gRS1

https://t.co/FgXd9wO2jC https://t.co/p5YtiemBTl

And this is that great 'business' plan that the whole @Apvienotais_ scum was crowing about, starting from the former Kargins' Latvian @guntarsv and ending with @andriskulbergs himself. TWENTY FIVE percent per year.🤡🤡🤡 I will remind you that the bonds of Briškens and Siliņa, which this scum so criticized, were FOURTEEN.

@JurgisLiepnieks * Approves https://t.co/iLeR0bqd9t

BNN Focus | Four years, three governments and old problems: how has Latvia reached the elections?

One month left until the elections - draw your conclusions! The old political forces will not change their policy. https://t.co/iAcPqRMTWo

The President has promulgated the Immigration Law with the retained possibility to obtain a temporary residence permit in exchange for investments 0 4123

Wind parks bad, golden visas good. That's how one can describe the government's current policy. The Prime Minister Kulbergs' adviser worriedly tells on the radio that Latvia needs investments because the budget cannot be balanced. A few days later, the government, with the finance minister chairing the meeting (the one who should be responsible for balancing the budget!), rejects one of Latvia's largest investment projects. Why? Because some millionaires object and can afford expensive lawyers and stir up the public. Even better, this proposal was submitted by National Alliance politician Vitenbergs. Shouldn't the National Alliance care about Latvia's energy independence, right? But no, its politicians have decided that their voter will be the one protesting against wind parks. They themselves also participate in protests, fishing for votes. Gas, apparently, is a politically closer energy source. Instead of ensuring clear decision-making for investors who have gone through many bureaucratic procedures, express favoritism is being prepared for golden visa holders. They supposedly fill Latvia's budget with money. Plain short-term thinking. Instead of reducing energy prices with renewables and developing manufacturing in Latvia, we wait for the Lucky Bear. But this could have been avoided. Also avoidable was the devastating criticism expressed by Latvia's Investment and Development Agency (LIAA), the Foreign Investors' Council (FICIL), the Latvian Employers' Confederation (LDDK), and the Latvian Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LTRK) - henceforth there must be a clearer and more predictable procedure for large investment projects (https://t.co/rbOzmuaDaC). The Cabinet of Ministers should not make such decisions on specific projects. The Cabinet must create the rules of the game, not participate in the game. State institutions, after rules are developed, must make decisions on specific projects. That was an initial flaw in the law that could not be fixed in the Saeima in the first half of this year. I submitted a proposal in the draft law that the institution - the State Environmental Service - should decide on such projects. The proposal received support in the committee but not at the Saeima session. In my opinion, what happened is a good lesson for the future. The Cabinet cannot be granted the right to decide on specific projects. That must be done by a non-partisan civil service that follows the law, not pre-election emotions. That will give certainty to investors that LIAA, LTRK, LDDK, and FICIL invite.

Kulberg's economic growth plan. #ErnestsZīmē

(2/2)🧵 Wait, stop. Do you consider us 'retards'? 107 thousand is OK, but less than 200 TUA per year, which is 0.15%, is a national security risk? The fact that we are full of poor 'blacks' about whom nobody in this country knows when they have to leave, when they arrived, etc. — that of course is different. But checking 150 people — that is a national security risk? Really? But we don't end there. Like in a good French restaurant, the best is always reserved for dessert. ☝🏻For health, benefits and legal support of third-country nationals we currently spend 100 million per year!!! (See image.) Wait, that can't be — we are against money that rich people want to invest here (not from Russia or Belarus), but at the same time we spend 100 million a year on existing third-country nationals? That can't be, right? But it can. It can be… As they say, away with golden visas and rich people, we stick with the poor and 'boltists'... And today Siliņa in all seriousness asked this question to Smiltēns…😳

(1/2)🧵 Pre-election agitation time is an interesting time, and I was greatly surprised when Mrs. Siliņa today in the debate asked Mr. Smiltēns a question about "golden visas". Which in essence is a glorified name for the temporary residence permit that has already been operating in one way or another since 2011. 🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️ And here I would like to touch a bit on this public debate, and I think it's worth looking at this issue in essence. Let's start with what the opponents say. Both Edvīns Šnore and deputy Agnese Krasta, and even Edvīns Inkēns have been very critical about this issue in public space. In their opinion, it was a very unsuccessful program that is a threat to Latvia's security and society as a whole. Okay. Let's look at the data. A brief history. The TUA (temporary residence permit) started operating on 1 July 2010. Until Russia's attack on Ukraine (24 February 2022), the investor TUA program had attracted approximately 1.59 billion euros in Latvia. Methodologies vary, but conservatively you can multiply this number by 1.5 — direct taxes, services, etc., i.e., what additionally came into the economy. Most of the money came in 2010–2014 while the threshold for real estate was low. After the increase in requirements in 2014 (up to €250,000 for property) the flow dropped dramatically. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the program has practically completely stopped (completely for Russian and Belarusian citizens). And good that — I have no claims against that. If we talk about recent years, I will quote a letter from the Latvian Real Estate Transactions Association addressed to the president: "We draw your attention that the current Immigration Law provides the possibility for citizens of third countries (except Russian and Belarusian citizens) to receive a residence permit based on the acquisition of real estate. In our opinion, this contributes to the real estate market, as transactions are made in the expensive property segment (from €250,000). From each transaction a state fee is also paid in the land register (1.5% of €250,000 is €3,750). Additionally, each investor pays 5% of the purchase price for granting the residence right, which is at least €12,500. Such foreign investments in real estate also create additional demand for services of local companies, namely, various engineers, construction, design, interior design, carpentry, metalworking and other craftsmen's work, as well as increase demand for construction materials, interior and locally produced goods." "…in order to receive the first temporary residence permit, in 2025 49 payments were made with a total amount of €750,054.25 (for transactions of approximately €15 million). For receiving repeated temporary residence permits for previously purchased real estate or for registering them (as of 12 October 2025 for 2025) within the same program, 89 payments were made with a total amount of €375,000." So 49 new applications and 89 extensions!!! In context, that's about 1/2 of the number of apartments sold in a Bonava project in Pierīga. There are also opponents who believe that this will affect apartment prices, i.e., apartments will become more expensive and less accessible to local buyers. Currently Riga has by far the lowest real estate prices in the Baltics. And when I say "by far", that's an understatement. In the secondary market in Riga's micro-districts, prices are often about 2–2.5 times lower than in Vilnius and about half lower than in Tallinn. On the other hand, according to Global Property Guide 2026 data. Tallinn ~3,100, Vilnius ~3,060, Riga ~2,650.. Obviously, there is absolutely zero correlation with TUA, but a huge connection with Vilnius's fintech ecosystem and general economic activity in the capitals of our neighboring countries. I won't even mention the premium segment, it is said that in Vilnius it has already reached ~€7,000 per square meter. But let's continue about security. Personally, I follow the Donbrava investigative commission very actively. According to his words (see image), ~107 thousand third-country citizens currently reside in Latvia.