Latvian Political Monitor

My clear position on the TET/LMT corporate deal and on the solutions that are coming soon https://t.co/KioPq1qql0

@viuksmp @MarisKucinskis @Finmin @Valstskase Overpromising is no longer in the millions... it has already gone into the stratosphere, into billions.

@akberzins If it were a liquid project, it would have dissolved, because Unity's pressure and attempts to entice deputies were quite substantial. But it didn't work out…

Russia's pressure will not change our support for Ukraine. 🇱🇻🇪🇪🇺🇦 With Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna, we agreed to strengthen cooperation in exposing crimes organized by Russia and to advance three key tasks: ▪️ To get the work of the Special Tribunal started, addressing with the Netherlands and the Council of Europe the necessary decisions and stable funding issues. ▪️ To advance compensation for damages to Ukraine, so that those who suffered from Russia's aggression can receive compensation. ▪️ To support Ukraine's reconstruction and the strengthening of rule of law. The Ministry of Justice is already cooperating with Ukrainian institutions in implementing justice reforms. The Ukraine Recovery Conference in Tallinn next January will be an opportunity to strengthen international support for this work. Russia must answer for what it has done — both the perpetrators of the crimes and those who ordered them. Together with Estonia, we will continue to work to prevent impunity and achieve justice for the victims of aggression.

Day No. 85 in the prime minister's chair (Monday) – 💰 Parties — who promises more? 📊 Budget scenarios; 🇳🇵 News from Nepal The day was spent working with @MarisKucinskis, @Finmin and @Valstskase officials and managers, analysing state finances, economic forecasts, saving opportunities and various scenarios. 📊 Figures, data and facts: ➖ The financial policy and spending management of previous governments have long been irresponsible — the budget deficit has been kept at the maximum possible limit, regularly borrowing money also for everyday spending. Such an approach had become the norm, and the whole Latvian society and sectors have become accustomed to this model. ➖ In 2028, the largest budget deficit is forecast — €2.7 billion, or 5.4%! ➖ Just servicing the state debt, i.e. interest payments, will already cost €681 million next year. This money will have to be found somewhere — so somewhere less will have to be spent. Debt servicing costs have risen from €155 million in 2021 to €681 million in 2027, because the price of money has become significantly higher. ➖ By 2030, the budget plans adopted by New Unity's finance ministers and prime minister provide for a deficit of around €2 billion every year. That is not safe and sustainable management of state finances. ➖ The Siliņa government (JV) left behind decisions adopted in the Cabinet of Ministers or laws worth €421 million in 2027, and this amount rises to €663 million in 2030 — WITHOUT ANY FINANCIAL COVERAGE. Of which: 🏥 €264 million — for health care 👩‍🏫 €56 million — for teachers' salaries ➖ Latvia's current and forecast economic growth is stagnatingly low — around +2% a year, but its contribution to the budget is largely eaten up by forecast annual inflation of +3.5%. ➖ The largest increase in budget expenditure is for defence and security — +32%, amounting to around €2 billion a year. ➖ The state has long been programmed to live at the maximum permissible budget deficit, without reviewing existing expenditure and on top of that adding another +1.5% of borrowing for security, which the 🇪🇺EU allows to be additionally included in the deficit for three years. Conclusion? 👉We do not review existing budget expenditure. 👉We continue to live on debt. 👉And we borrow even more, because we are allowed to do so. That is not right. ➖ Also noteworthy is the manoeuvre of E. Siliņa's (JV) government, borrowing 1% from the 2nd pension level. That too will have to be paid back into the budget — an impact of around €280 million in 2029. ➖ Also in 2029, the term expires for the additional tax imposed on banks, i.e. the windfall tax. As a result, the state budget will also lose these additional revenues. ➖ One of the biggest problems in budget planning is politically adopted decisions to "tie" spending in specific sectors to a certain percentage — for example, 6% of GDP for health care — or to automatically index wages. If a budget expenditure is tied to a specific %, the whole expenditure part automatically increases as GDP or another variable grows — without any new government or Saeima decision. ✅ There is also good news. The Ministry of Finance and @kucinskis have been working since July, reviewing the ministries' base expenditure, and have already found €214 million in savings in the 2027 budget base. That is a step in the right direction, but there is still a lot of work to do. We must continue to optimise expenditure so that there is money to cover already planned and adopted commitments for which no revenues have been identified. 📕 One thing is clear to me — the next government will have to adopt an iron-fisted "2027–2030 FISCAL STABILITY AND REFORM PLAN", more precisely — a special law, similar to during Covid. The way out of this financial situation is not a simple spending-cutting plan. That will not be enough this time. 📈 The economy and budget revenues must be grown rapidly, with the main emphasis on the opportunities of export-capable companies. I believe this is possible, because such slow economic growth can and should be increased by at least +1.5 percentage points a year. That would give the budget an additional around €300 million in revenue. 💶 But we need to save already today — already for 2027. That is why the ministers agreed: ⛔ To stop the typical DECEMBER waste — meaninglessly spending the balances of ministries and institutions at the end of the year. ⛔ From 1 October, to suspend the conclusion of any new contracts and commitments. A similar moratorium as in the ICT area — if something is truly necessary, the need and usefulness must be proven. 🧊 To freeze salaries at the 2025 level. ⛔ To stop paying DECEMBER bonuses and extra payments — an exception may be allowed only for special achievements and with a manager's justification. ⛔ To stop unnecessary events, seminars, conferences, consultations and studies, as well as office and equipment renewal, IT and other investments that are not critically necessary. 🔍 Ministers must take political responsibility and, together with state secretaries and heads of institutions, review and justify any budget expenditure above €50,000. 🗳️ PARTIES — WHO PROMISES MORE? Given this stark budget reality and the legacy left in state finances, where even borrowing up to the maximum 🇪🇺EU-permitted budget deficit limit is not enough, the pre-election promises of political parties stand out in particular. They can no longer be measured in hundreds of millions — they are already measured in billions of euros, moreover without financial coverage and without a real economic growth offer. I have analysed the programmes of several political parties and summarised each party's promises in monetary terms for the period from 2027 to 2030. 🏆 The political "Promisers" record-holders for the next four years: 🥇 No.1 — Suverēnā Vara / Jaunlatvieši (Stepaņenko wants to give benefits, cut VAT, raise wages): +€3.61 billion 🥈 No.2 — @LatvijaPirmaja (@SlesersAinars – we lower VAT on everything): +€2.87 billion 🥉 No.3 — @ZZS_ (@ViktorsValainis — promising to abolish VAT): +€2.47 billion 4️⃣ @Progresivie (@suvajevs — because money grows on trees): +€2.1 billion 5️⃣ @Jauna_Vienotiba (@aseradens — we continue to borrow endlessly): +€1.56 billion 6️⃣ @tblv Nacionālā Apvienība — (wants to fund language, education, culture and fight illegal migration, without thinking about the ECONOMY): +€1.55 billion 7️⃣ @Apvienotais_ — main emphasis on education, which will pay off in the future, with a justification of where we will get the funding: +€763 million 🇳🇵 NEPAL In the Nepalese context — all those belonging to Latvia are still in the status of missing persons. According to the Civil Law, one must wait until April 2027 to change this status and relatives can start arranging the necessary documents. Until then — hope dies last. The Latvian government is ready to help in every possible way, if such a need arises.

To help Ukrainians! @LatvijasLoto, within the Good Cause programme, with the approval of @Finmin as shareholder, is donating 5 company cars in support of Ukraine. Soon they will reach the association "Bruņotava" to go further to Ukraine and serve where they are most needed right now. https://t.co/1ujILtORJU

Latvia's future starts with young people's opportunities today! 🚀 First job. Affordable housing. The chance to safely plan a family. These are the foundations for a young person to begin an independent life and build their future in Latvia. THE UNITED LIST has concrete solutions: a 10% micro-enterprise tax rate for individuals, housing grants, state guarantees and rental housing programmes for young families, as well as the opportunity to work while on parental leave without losing the child-raising benefit. And one more important thing. Young people must be not only recipients of policy, but also its creators. That is why youth initiatives and real opportunities to participate in decision-making must be strengthened. Youth opportunities are a matter of Latvia's growth and future. Video: LTV platform 16+. Political debates for young people | Priority X https://t.co/dMHrjzxh3J

The Green Course must strengthen Latvia's economy, and its goals must be proportionate to our capabilities. Latvia cannot afford promises worth billions without clear funding. Every decision must be assessed by what it gives people and businesses: more affordable energy, new jobs, and opportunities to develop manufacturing. The implementation of climate goals must go hand in hand with Latvia's competitiveness and energy independence. I advocate a responsible approach: to invest in projects that create value in Latvia and to undertake commitments that we are able to fulfill. Ambitions must be based on calculations, because ultimately society pays for political promises. 🎥 Video: Delfi TV debates “Nākamais lūdzu!” about Latvia's place in the world (23.09.)

@Kurmitis_ @Olafs_Pulks May everyone have such serious worries in life that they have to worry about some board formalities (smile)😇

@MatissBicevskis ? why evasive? The basic idea was exactly what I wrote in my previous reply. Do you have better proposals for improving the electoral system? Spill it! :)

After reviewing the ministries' expenditure base, it has been found that next year it can be streamlined by a total of 214 million euros. This is not an amount that could be reallocated to some other spending. This streamlining allows us not to sink into an ever-growing debt yoke within the mentioned sum. https://t.co/ahP9ZNb0RG

Day No. 84 in the prime minister's seat (FRIDAY, 25 Sept.) — before winter we need clear calculations, not scary headlines. I will always support Latvian entrepreneurs. I spoke at @Sadalestikls AURUM monthly meeting of Latvian exporting/manufacturing companies — a very positive impression, I had not expected such a large charge of positive energy — our entrepreneurs are so attractive, open, innovative and capable = super salespeople. Faith returns that we can move great mountains and improve the state's economy through export capacity. For example: @balticovolv will very soon become the European leader in egg production, having taken first place in Lithuania, already in the Baltics, acquiring companies in Scandinavia, Slovenia, etc. Excellent examples of how home producers have become export-capable companies. I would say the AURUM entrepreneurs' club is more attractive and energetic than BNI. 🔥 THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING FUEL. THE QUESTION IS THE PRICE. At the morning government action meeting we went through readiness for the heating season. KEM estimates — in the case of a mild or moderately cold winter, average heating costs could increase by 10–15%. For a small apartment that could be an additional 2–15 euros per month, for a private house — 20–40 euros. The situation will differ in each municipality. 🏙️ IN RIGA @RSiltums I SEE NO JUSTIFICATION FOR A 30% TARIFF INCREASE. Loud percentages are not enough — precise calculations are needed. First, cheaper “Latvenergo” (@Latvenergo) heat must be used, residual heat, market distortions must be eliminated and consumption reduced. By 16 October, the Ministry of Economics, Climate and Energy and the Ministry of Finance must submit a joint report: what has been done, how much each measure will save and what else is needed. Then we will decide on next steps. 🧾 ACCOUNTANTS POINT OUT 🇱🇻 2.8 BILLION EUR CIRCULATE WITHOUT ACCOUNTING. During the meeting with the Latvian Association of Accountants we discussed the practical side of state decisions. Accountants are the first to see where tax and accounting requirements work and where they only create new bureaucracy. It was suspicious that 43,000 company board managers themselves keep their company's accounts‼️ Here @vid_gov should pay attention to whether the shadow economy is hiding! Moreover, if the Moneyval report is finished, then FID should not think about how to remain AML supervisors and controllers in the current volume, and God forbid take over the same thing that VID is already doing! The budget cannot be put in order with a spreadsheet alone. The rules must be understandable and executable in a company on Monday morning. 🎙️ A DAY WITH 3x PRIME MINISTERIAL DEBATES. In an interview with @KNL_LTV1 (@JanisDomburs) I answered direct questions about the government's work, money, responsibility and what I am ready to do after the elections. Not all answers have to be convenient. It is the prime minister's duty to give them. I also took part in @DelfiLV's programme “Nākamais, lūdzi!”, @LatvijasTV's Latvian Television programme cycle “Partija fokusā”. This week many questions moved from “will we do it?” to “how and by what date?”. That is where real work begins.

✅ Today in the government we supported more efficient transfer of criminal proceedings between 🇪🇺 member states Achieving justice requires clear cooperation between states and protected human rights. If criminal proceedings for one criminal offence are conducted in several EU countries, it must be possible to agree where to continue the case. Parallel proceedings create unnecessary work for authorities and complicate the situation for the people involved. Today in the government we supported the amendments to the Criminal Procedure Law prepared by @Tieslietas, which will make the transfer of criminal proceedings between EU states clearer and help avoid duplication of proceedings. What do the changes provide? ⚖️ Greater opportunities to defend your rights. Victims, suspects and accused persons will have clearly defined rights to request the transfer of proceedings to another EU country and to express their opinion before the transfer request is sent. 🛡️ The possibility to appeal the decision. Those involved will be able to appeal the decision of the Latvian competent authority to agree to take over criminal proceedings from another EU country. 🤝 Clear responsibility of authorities. It will be precisely determined which Latvian authorities make decisions and ensure the transfer or takeover of proceedings. Our goal is to ensure that cooperation between states helps cases move forward and that people have understandable opportunities to defend their rights.

✅ Today in government we supported the proposal to rename @Patentu_valde as the Latvian Intellectual Property Office from 1 January 2027. Latvia's growth depends on our ability to create new knowledge and put it to use. It is important that solutions created by researchers and entrepreneurs do not remain mere ideas but become products and services that can compete beyond Latvia as well. That requires a strong intellectual property system and close cooperation between the state, science, and entrepreneurs. Therefore, intellectual property protection is not just a legal matter. It is part of how we build Latvia's economy and strengthen its competitiveness. The institution's new name shows this importance much more clearly. In the institution's further development, we want to strengthen: 🟪 practical support for entrepreneurs and researchers; 🟪 cooperation between the state, science, and business; 🟪 opportunities to turn protected ideas into products and services demanded on the market.

No need to spin conspiracy theories. The answer is here: https://t.co/5EZJad3k15 + from personal experience I know that decisions in the board are made by discussion, with all sides agreeing, not mechanically voting. https://t.co/2AyFlFdurb

@StafeckaLiga here is the answer: https://t.co/5EZJad3k15 From experience I know that decisions in the AS board are not made by voting, but by everyone agreeing together.

@kasparsudritis @KNL_LTV1 all correct